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Economic Recovery Depends on Mitigating New Risks

Posted 12 months ago by JAC Outsourcing

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​Indonesia's economic recovery in 2022 will be accompanied by the emergence of new risks, such as commodity price volatility in global markets, inflationary pressures that could have an impact on rising interest rates, and geopolitical dynamics.

The new risks must be managed so as not to disrupt the pace of economic recovery and structural reforms.

Global and domestic economic recovery in 2022 will still remain uneven and uncertain. This is mainly due to the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic, which continues to be overshadowed by the emergence of new variants of the coronavirus, such as the B.1.1.529, or Omicron, variant.

The handling of the spread of the COVID-19, which proved effective some time ago, could be a strategy for Indonesia to prevent the transmission of new variants. This must be accompanied by the acceleration of COVID-19 vaccinations to create community immunity so that economic activities can resume.

Regarding the 2022 State Budget (APBN), the government's fiscal instruments are still expansive and accommodate counter-cyclical policies, but still pay attention to risks, and prioritize fiscal sustainability in the medium and long term.

The government is targeting a State Budget deficit of 4.85 percent of the gross domestic product, or Rp868 trillion, in 2022. The deficit is narrower compared to the 2021 outlook of 5.2–5.4 percent of the GDP.

The APBN deficit will result from the ceiling on state revenue of Rp1,846.1 trillion and state expenditure of Rp2,714.2 trillion, according to Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati. With this fiscal posture, the government is targeting economic growth of 5.2 percent in 2022, compared to the outlook for 2021, which is pegged at 3.5–4 percent.

 

(Source: Antara News)

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